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We humans aren’t great predictors of the future. For most of history, our experience has been “local and linear.” Not much change occurred generation to generation: We used the same tools, ate the same meals, lived in the same general place.
Even as progress gets faster and faster, our caveman brains tend to think linearly. Though the pace of technology is progressing exponentially, the default mode of our caveman brains is to think linearly. As a result, we’ve developed an intuitive outlook of the future akin to how we approach a staircase—having climbed a number of steps, our prediction of what’s to come is simply steps followed by more steps, with each day expected to be roughly like the last.
But, as Ray Kurzweil describes in The Singularity Is Near, the rapid growth of technology is actually accelerating progress across a host of domains. This has led to unexpected degrees of technological and social change occurring not only between generations, but within them. Against our intuition, today the future is unfolding not linearly but exponentially, making it challenging to predict just what will happen next and when.
What is exponential growth?
Unlike linear growth, which results from repeatedly adding a constant, exponential growth is the repeated multiplication of a constant. This is why linear growth produces a stable straight line over time, but exponential growth skyrockets.
We often miss exponential trends in their early stages because the initial pace of exponential growth is deceptive—it begins slow and steady and is hard to differentiate from linear growth. Hence, predictions based on the expectation of an exponential pace can seem improbable.
In practice, exponential trends do not last forever. However, some trends can continue for long periods, driven along by successive technological paradigms. A broad exponential trend, computing for example, is made up of a series of consecutive S-shaped technological life cycles, or S-curves. Kurzweil lists five computing paradigms in the 20th century: electromechanical, relay, vacuum tubes, discrete transistors, and integrated circuits. When one technology exhausted its potential, the next took over making more progress than its predecessors.
The rule of thumb here is: expect to be surprised, then plan accordingly.
For example, what might the next five years look like? One way to forecast them would be to look at the last five and extend this pace forward. By now, the problem with this thinking should be clear: The pace itself is changing. A better forecast would be to look at the last five and then reduce the time it will take to make a similar amount of progress in the next five. It’s more likely that what you think will happen in the next five years will actually happen in the next three. The practice of exponential thinking isn't really about the ins and outs of how you plan—you know how to do that—it’s about better timing your plan (whatever it may be)
With a little practice, we can all make better plans by becoming consciously aware of our intuitive, linear expectations and adjusting them for an exponential future. Exponential thinking reduces some of this disruptive stress and reveals new opportunities. If we can better plan for the accelerating pace, we can ease the transition from one paradigm to the next, and greet the future in stride.
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In “The Rules of Genius, Rule #9: Approach answers obliquely”, Marty Neumeier outlines a range of thinking strategies to explore a challenge in new ways. These strategies are always great to have in your toolkit when exploring a new project.
1) Think in metaphors
A metaphor is a link between two dissimilar things: “The world is a stage.” By equating the world with a stage, you can more easily imagine that we’re all actors playing a part an insight you might not have had without the metaphor.
2) Think in pictures
Visual thinking can strip a problem down to its essence, leading to profoundly simple connections that language by itself can’t make. The ability to draw stick figures, arrows, and talk balloons is all you need to think visually.
3) Start from a different place
When you grab for the “correct” solution, brilliant solutions will elude you. You’ll get stuck in the tar pits of knowledge, unable to free your mind of what you already know. The easiest way to escape this trap is by rejecting the correct solution — at least temporarily — in favor of the “wrong” solution. While the worst idea can never be the best idea, it will take your imagination to a different starting place.
4) Steal from other domains
If you steal an idea cleverly enough, the theft will go unnoticed. While stealing is not the same as pure imagination, it does take a mental leap to see how an idea from one industry or discipline could be adapted to another.
5) Arrange blind dates
Great ideas are often two ideas that haven’t previously been introduced. Using a technique called “combinatory play,” you can throw unrelated ideas together to see if the create a new idea. Look for combinations that have a natural fit.
6) Reverse the polarity
Write down as many assumptions about the problem as you can think of. Reverse them. Think about what it would take to make the reversed assumption true. Some of these may lead to new ideas.
7) Ask simple questions
What else is this like? Who else believes this? What if I changed it slightly? What can I eliminate? What can I substitute? Is this the cause or the effect? What if I changed the timing? What if I made it bigger? What would happen if I did nothing?
8) Watch for accidents
You can sometimes make the best discoveries when you’re searching for something else. Pay attention to anomalies, surprises, or feedback that confounds your expectations. These can open up exciting new areas of inquiry.
9) Write things down
Not all your ideas will be worthwhile, but they might trigger new ideas. Make a list of your thoughts as you work through any problem. Keep a notebook, a sketchbook, a scrapbook, or an idea file. A pencil can be a crowbar for lifting ideas from your subconscious.
Typically we need to be able to see complex themes or challenges from as many different angles as we can. These nine strategies or cues certainly will help to ensure we are being as thorough as we can be. This type of multi faceted thinking strategy not only provides us a more comprehensive creative approach, it also gives us all the best possible chance to break new ground and reveal opportunities that have yet to be discovered.
Recently Dave Rochlin, a lecturer in applied innovation at UC Berkeley, Haas School of Business, and executive director of the Haas@Work program, wrote a terrific article, titled “When Innovation Meets the Language of the Corner Office”, that was published in MIT Sloan Management Review.
Without giving too much away, the gist of the article is that it’s ultimately the innovators’ job to translate the strategies (or strategic options) to leaders and decision makers in order to get buy-in. When I spoke with Rochlin about this, he mentioned that storytelling should play a part in this communication.
The essence of storytelling is about designing (with a big “D”) the narrative, structure, and flow of the story in order to hold the attention of your audience in order to transport them to a new state, a new way of thinking about the problem, opportunity, or strategy you’re presenting. As an innovator not only must you translate for different audiences. If you’re looking for buy-in, you must use storytelling to do it.
The best part is this: humans (all of us) are born storytellers. Yes, every one of us has the capacity to tell a persuasive story just as we’re all transported (and persuaded) by good stories that are told to us. Of course not everyone can aspire to be the next Hemingway. But there are tricks – and tools – to telling great stories! Stories can be designed.
As Nancy Duarte states, in Design a Better Business, all stories are structured in a similar way (i.e. three acts): they have a beginning, middle, and an end. Your story will too. But, in order to design the story that will gain buy-in for your idea or perhaps have some other desired affect, you will also need to design it specifically for your audience. Just as well-designed business models don’t appear out of thin air, well-designed stories also don’t simply happen in a vacuum. You must also take into account what your audience members feel, think, know, want, etc. about the subjects in your story before they hear it.
The Storytelling Canvas provides a structure for creating your story for each unique situation:
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