Friday, November 11, 2016

Paul's Update Special 11/11




The concept of jobs to be done provides a lens through which to understand value creation. The framework looks at customer motivations in business settings. The term was made popular by business leader Clayton Christensen in his book The Innovator’s Solution, the follow-up to his landmark work The Innovator’s Dilemma. It’s a straightforward principle: people “hire” products and services to get a job done. Others have operationalized aspects of the jobs to be done approach. Most notable is Tony Ulwick’s “Outcome Driven Innovation” technique. Bob Moesta and colleagues at The Rewired Group have also used jobs to be done effectively as consultants. It’s a straightforward principle: people “hire” products and services to get a job done. 

SIX ELEMENTS OF JTBDs
Based on Christensen’s theory and what others have written about JTBD, I’m proposing a simple model that has six elements. These are grouped into two areas, seen along two axes in the diagram below:
Rectangle.png

On the one hand, there are three dimensions of a given job (horizontal in the diagram above)

  • Functional job – the actions a person takes or the task at hand
  • Emotional job –how people feel while completing a job
  • Social job – Aspects of a social job reflect how someone is perceive by others

The context of the job is also part of the model. This includes three elements (vertical in the diagram above):

  • Situation – the circumstances of a job
  • Motivation – the trigger that led to action, often a problem or challenge to overcome
  • Desired outcome – the expected result, by which a person will measure success

The jobs theory sees people as goal-driven actors. The job is really about progress toward a goal.

PUTTING JTBD TO WORK

  1. Understand the market – Structure user research findings around the six elements in my framework. While interviewing, and observing people in your target market, capture and organize insights using this approach.
  2. Design for the market – Use JTBD to guide design and development decisions. For instance, in agile software development, Alan Klement recommends writing jobs stories rather than user stories. Then you can take these job stories into design sprints and brainstorming sessions to use are starting points
  3. Talk to the market – Think about how JTBD might help you address customers in marketing and advertising. Typically, you'll shift language from features to desired outcomes.
  4. (Re)define markets - JTBD ultimately help answer the strategic question, What business are we really in? The approach expands your strategic field of vision beyond your current capabilities and core competency.

CONCLUSION
JTBD theory offers a rich framework for understanding customers. But you may be thinking that it sounds familiar or that you’ve been advocating this for years. Well, you’re right At its core, JTBD theory overlaps greatly with existing approaches of user-centered design, design thinking, goal-driven design and more. Still, at a minimum the JTBD approach offers a fresh perspective on creating value for customers. What’s different, I believe, is the source of the approach: it comes from thoughts leaders in business. The momentum around JTBD, particularly with Clayton Christensen’s new book "Competing Against Luck", will likely increase over the next several years. My experiences working with JTBD over that past 8+ years has been positive. I encourage you to consider how it might help your situation. I hope that the model proposed here is helpful.



Managers at all levels will have to adapt to the world of smart machines. The fact is, artificial intelligence will soon be able to do the administrative tasks that consume much of managers’ time faster, better, and at a lower cost. How can managers — from the front lines to the C-suite — thrive in the age of AI? To find out, we surveyed 1,770 managers from 14 countries and interviewed 37 executives in charge of digital transformation at their organizations. Using this data, we identified five practices that successful managers will need to master.

Practice 1: Leave Administration to AI
According to the survey, managers across all levels spend more than half of their time on administrative coordination and control tasks. AI will automate many of these tasks. Report writing is another relevant example. The Associated Press expanded its quarterly earnings reporting from approximately 300 stories to 4,400 with the help of AI-powered software robots. In doing so, technology freed up journalists to conduct more investigative and interpretive reporting. Imagine technology like this drafting your next management report. The managers we surveyed see such change in a positive light: Eighty-six percent said they would like AI support with monitoring and reporting.

Practice 2: Focus on Judgment Work
Many decisions require insight beyond what artificial intelligence can squeeze from data alone. Managers use their knowledge of organizational history and culture, as well as empathy and ethical reflection. This is the essence of human judgment — the application of experience and expertise to critical business decisions and practices. Managers we surveyed have a sense of a shift in this direction and identify the judgment-oriented skills of creative thinking and experimentation, data analysis and interpretation, and strategy development as three of the four top new skills that will be required to succeed in the future.

Practice 3: Treat Intelligent Machines as “Colleagues”
Managers who view AI as a kind of colleague will recognize that there’s no need to “race against a machine.” While human judgment is unlikely to be automated, intelligent machines can add enormously to this type of work, assisting in decision support and data-driven simulations as well as search and discovery activities. In fact, 78% of the surveyed managers believe that they will trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future. Not only will AI augment managers’ work, but it will also enable managers to interact with intelligent machines in collegial ways, through conversation or other intuitive interfaces. AI will be their always-available assistant and adviser.

Practice 4: Work Like a Designer
While managers’ own creative abilities are vital, perhaps even more important is their ability to harness others’ creativity. Manager-designers bring together diverse ideas into integrated, workable, and appealing solutions. They embed design thinking into the practices of their teams and organizations. A third of the managers in our survey identified creative thinking and experimentation as a key skill area they need to learn to stay successful as AI increasingly takes over administrative work.

Practice 5: Develop Social Skills and Networks
The managers we surveyed recognized the value of judgment work. But they undervalued the deep social skills critical to networking, coaching, and collaborating that will help them stand out in a world where AI carries out many of the administrative and analytical tasks they perform today. While they will use digital technologies to tap into the knowledge and judgment of partners, customers, and communities, they must be able to tease out and bring together diverse perspectives, insights, and experiences.

Steps to Success
AI will ultimately prove to be cheaper, more efficient, and potentially more impartial in its actions than human beings. But such a scenario should not be cause for concern for managers. It just means that their jobs will change to focus on things only humans can do. To prepare themselves and their organizations for the kinds of human-led work that will gain prominence as technology takes on more routine tasks, leaders must take the following steps:
  • Explore early. To navigate in an uncertain future, managers must experiment with AI and apply their insights to the next cycle of experiments.
  • Adopt new key performance indicators to drive adoption. AI will bring new criteria for success: collaboration capabilities, information sharing, experimentation, learning and decision-making effectiveness, and the ability to reach beyond the organization for insights.
  • Develop training and recruitment strategies for creativity, collaboration, empathy, and judgment skills. Leaders should develop a diverse workforce and team of managers that balance experience with creative and social intelligence — each side complementing the other to support sound collective judgment.

While oncoming disruptions won’t arrive all at once, the pace of development is faster and the implications more far-reaching than most executives and managers realize. Those managers capable of assessing what the workforce of the future will look like can prepare themselves for the arrival of AI.



We should pay special attention to those whose ideas had impact far beyond their own lifespan.  It is they who were able to see not only the problems of their day but ones that, although they seemed minor or trivial at the time, would become consequential—even determinant—in years to come.  Here are four such men and what we can learn from them.

Vannevar Bush and the Emerging Frontier of Science
By any measure, Vannevar Bush was a man of immense accomplishment.  A professor at MIT who invented one of the first working computers, he also co-founded Raytheon, a $30 billion dollar company that prospers to this day. Yet even these outsized achievements pale in comparison to how Bush fundamentally changed the relationship of science to greater society.  

In the late 1930’s, as the winds of war began to stir in Europe, Bush saw that the coming conflict would not be won by bullets and bombs alone.  Science, he saw, would likely tip the balance between victory and defeat. It was that insight which led to the establishment of Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD).  With Bush at its helm, the agency led the development of the proximity fuze, guided missiles, radar, more advanced battlefield medicine and, not least of all, the Manhattan Project which led to the atomic bomb. 

As the war came to a close, President Roosevelt asked Bush to write a report on how the success of the OSRD could be replicated in peacetime.  That report, "Science: The Endless Frontier", outlined a new vision of the relationship between public and private investment, with government expanding scientific horizons and industry developing new applications. Bush’s report led to the foundation of the NSF, NIH, DARPA and other agencies, which have funded early research in everything from the Internet and GPS, to the Human Genome Project and many of our most important cures.  It has been Bush’s vision, perhaps more than almost anything else, that has made America an exceptional nation. Oh, and he also wrote an essay in 1945 that not only laid out what would become the Internet, but influenced many of the key pioneers who designed it.

Marshall McLuhan and the Global Village
Marshall McLuhan was one of the first to see the subtle, but undeniable influence of popular culture. While many at the time thought of mass media as merely the flotsam and jetsam of the modern age, he saw that the study of things like newspapers, radio and TV could yield important insights. Central to his ideas about culture was his concept of media as “extensions of man.”  Following this line of thought, he argued that Gutenberg’s printing press not only played a role in spreading information but also in shaping human thought. Essentially, the medium is the message.

McLuhan argued further that the new age of electronic media would disrupt the private experience and specialization that the dominance of printed media brought about and usher in a new era of collective, transnational experience that he called the global village. Importantly, however, he did not see the global village as a peaceful place.  Rather than promoting widespread harmony and understanding, he predicted that the ability to share experiences across vast chasms of time and space would lead to a new form of tribalism, a result in a “release of human power and aggressive violence” greater than ever in history.

Richard Feynman Sees “Plenty of Room at the Bottom”
When Richard Feynman stepped up to the podium to address the American Physical Society in 1959, his talk, modestly titled "There’s Plenty of Room At The Bottom" would launch a revolution in physics and engineering that continues to play out to this day.  Starting from a seemingly innocent question about shrinking an encyclopedia down to the size of a postage stamp, he proceeded over the next hour to invent the new field of nanotechnology

The talk, which is surprisingly easy and fun to read, also gives a fascinating window into how a genius thinks.  After pondering the problem of shrinking things down to the size of molecules, he proposes some solutions, then thinks some more about what issues those ideas would create, proposes some more fixes and on and on until a full picture emerged. He was also a pioneer in parallel computing and did important work in virology.  All of this in addition to his day job as a physicist, for which he won the Nobel prize in 1965.

Tim Berners-Lee Creates a Web of Data
Tim Berners-Lee is most famous for his creation of the World Wide Web.  In November 1989, he created the three protocols—HTTP, URL, and HTML—that we now know as the “Web” and released his creation to the world, refusing to patent it.  Later, he helped set up the W3C consortium that continues to govern and manage its growth and further development. The truth is, however, that the Web wasn’t a product of any great vision, but rather a solution to a particular problem that he encountered at CERN.  Physicists would come there from all over the world, work for a period of time and then leave.  Unfortunately, they recorded their work in a labyrinth of different platforms and protocols that didn’t work well together.

So Berners-Lee set out to solve that problem by creating a universal medium that could link information together.  He never dreamed it would grow into what it did.  If he had, he would have built it differently.  He wrote at length about these frustrations in his memoir, Weaving The Web.  Chief among them was the fact that while the Web-connected people, it did little for data.
So he envisioned a second web, which he called the Semantic Web.  Much like his earlier creation, the idea outstripped even what he imagined for it.

The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create it
Take a hard look at these four visionaries and some common themes emerge.  First, all except McLuhan took an active role in bringing their ideas into realities. Another commonality is that, while their ideas didn’t meet with immediate acceptance, they stuck with them. Third, they set out to uncover fundamental forces.  It was that quest for basic understanding that led them to ask questions and find answers that nobody else could imagine at the time.  They weren’t just looking to solve the problems of their day but sought out problems that transcended time. In effect, they were able to see the future because they cared about it.



Thanks to the likes of Google, Amazon, and Facebook, the terms artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have become much more widespread than ever before. They are often used interchangeably and promise all sorts of outcomes from smarter home appliances to robots taking our jobs. But while AI and machine learning are very much related, they are not quite the same thing.

AI is a branch of computer science attempting to build machines capable of intelligent behavior, while 
Stanford University defines machine learning as “the science of getting computers to act without being explicitly programmed”. 

You need AI researchers to build the smart machines, but you need machine learning experts to make them truly intelligent.

Big technology players such as Google and Nvidia are currently working on developing this machine learning; desperately pushing computers to learn the way a human would in order to progress what many are calling the next revolution in technology – machines that ‘think’ like humans.

Suppose you were searching for ‘WIRED’ on Google but accidentally typed ‘Wired’. After the search, you’d probably realize you typed it wrong and you’d go back and search for ‘WIRED’ a couple of seconds later. Google’s algorithm recognizes that you searched for something a couple of seconds after searching something else, and it keeps this in mind for future users who make a similar typing mistake. As a result, Google ‘learns’ to correct it for you.

While this is a very basic example, data scientists, developers, and researchers are using much more complex methods of machine learning to gain insights previously out of reach. Programs that learn from experience are helping them discover how the human genome works, understand consumer behavior to a degree never before possible and build systems for purchase recommendations, image recognition, and fraud prevention, among other uses.

Segregation: A Global History of Divided Cities: challenging,impressive
The University of Chicago Press
book cover
Segregation brings to mind apartheid South Africa or the American South in the age of Jim Crow—societies premised on racial separation. But as Carl H. Nightingale shows us in our free e-book for November, segregation is everywhere, deforming cities and societies worldwide. Segregation: A Global History of Divided Cities journeys back to archaeological evidence of segregation’s ancient roots, courses through the era of European colonialism, to the aggressive segregation movements of the twentieth century, and ends in Johannesburg and Chicago. Segregation tours our divided world. Get it free in November.
“The scope of the work is challenging and impressive.… This book deserves to be widely read.”—Times Higher Education
catalog cover
The Great Chicago Book Sale is Back! Get up to 90% off list prices on more than 600 books from Chicago and the fine publishers we distribute! Welcome to our 2016-17 Sales Catalog. Use promo code AD1561 for prices that start as low as $5. Fiction and non-fiction, humanities, social science, and natural science, plus lots of art books and great gifts are all in the sale catalog.
About Chicago's e-books: The University of Chicago Press has more than 4,000 titles in its Chicago Digital Editions e-book program. Some of Chicago's e-books are DRM-free, while others require Adobe Digital Editions software, which is freely downloadable. Chicago Digital Editions are powered by BiblioVault.
This is the November 2016 free e-book notification.

Friday, November 4, 2016

Paul's Update Special 11/4




Five strategies you should consider adopting today, in order for your company to prepare for the future.
  1. Winning at mobile will mean having an app. Research shows that 89 percent of all mobile media time is now spent in apps, while only the remaining 11 percent is spent on the mobile web. This means that not having an app for your business is almost certainly costing you. If you don’t already have an app, now is the time to start planning for one.
  2. Increase your use of freelancers now so you’re not playing catch-up. We now know that 34 percent of the US workforce are freelancers. It has also been predicted that by 2020 (that’s just four years away!), freelancers will make up 50 percent of the workforce. One of the most important “future-proof” benefits is this: in the event of an economic downturn, using freelancers will make you and your business far more nimble.
  3. Prepare for the aging workforce. According to the CDC, by 2020 one in every four workers will be over the age of 55. Now is the time to begin identifying high-potential individuals within your organization. This will give you time to invest in training and development, ensuring they’re ready for their new roles when the time comes.
  4. Adapt policies attractive to millenial employees. In their report, Millennials At Work: Reshaping the Workplace, PricewaterhouseCoopers offers some important insights into the differences employers should consider, including:
    1. Due to recent economic downturn in many parts of the world, Millennials now expect to work for up to six or more employers over their lifetime. This means decreased loyalty toward employers, and therefore greater turnover.
    2. Millennials value flexibility and diversity in terms of their working hours, location, training and work/life balance
    3. Millennials prefer to communicate electronically rather than in-person or on the phone. Employers will need to adapt their current model to accommodate this.
    4. Millennials prefer a digital wallet over being paid by check. They are demanding a new wave of ease in payments.
  5. Prepare your business for environmental and social sustainability. Using the Future-Fit Business benchmark, businesses can define their own future-fit goals to ensure they’re on the path towards becoming sustainable. Businesses can aspire to a list of 21 goals each with its own set of key fitness indicators (KFIs).

No one can predict exactly what’s in store for your business in the future. However, by monitoring current trends, it’s possible to prepare your business now for possibilities that will very likely become realities in the near future.



The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence is the brainchild of Eric Horvitz, technical fellow and a managing director at Microsoft Research.

Every five years a panel of experts will assess the current state of AI and its future directions. The first panel, comprised of experts in AI, law, political science, policy, and economics, was launched last fall and decided to frame their report around the impact AI will have on the average American city. Here’s how they think it will affect eight key domains of city life in the next fifteen years.
  1. The speed of the transition to AI-guided transport may catch the public by surprise. Self-driving vehicles will be widely adopted by 2020, and it won’t just be cars — driverless delivery trucks, autonomous delivery drones, and personal robots will also be commonplace.
  2. Robots that do things like deliver packages and clean offices will become much more common in the next 15 years.  Cloud-connected robots will be able to share data to accelerate learning. Low-cost 3D sensors like Microsoft's Kinect will speed the development of perceptual technology, while advances in speech comprehension will enhance robots’ interactions with humans. But the cost and complexity of reliable hardware and the difficulty of implementing perceptual algorithms in the real world mean general-purpose robots are still some way off. 
  3. AI’s impact on healthcare in the next 15 years will depend more on regulation than technology. The most transformative possibilities of AI in healthcare require access to data. If these hurdles can be cleared, AI could automate the legwork of diagnostics by mining patient records and the scientific literature. This kind of digital assistant could allow doctors to focus on the human dimensions of care while using their intuition and experience to guide the process.
  4. The line between the classroom and individual learning will be blurred by 2030. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) will interact with intelligent tutors and other AI technologies to allow personalized education at scale. Computer-based learning won’t replace the classroom, but online tools will help students learn at their own pace using techniques that work for them.
  5. AI will help improve life for the poorest members of society. Predictive analytics will let government agencies better allocate limited resources.
  6. By 2030 cities are likely to rely heavily on AI technologies to detect and predict crime. Contrary to concerns about overly pervasive law enforcement, AI is likely to make policing more targeted and therefore less overbearing.
  7. The effects of AI will be felt most profoundly in the workplace. By 2030 AI will be encroaching on skilled professionals like lawyers, financial advisers, and radiologists. As it becomes capable of taking on more roles, organizations will be able to scale rapidly with relatively small workforces. AI is more likely to replace tasks rather than jobs in the near term, and it will also create new jobs and markets, even if it's hard to imagine what those will be right now.
  8. Entertainment in 2030 will be interactive, personalized, and immeasurably more engaging than today. Democratizing the production of high-quality entertainment makes it nearly impossible to predict how highly fluid human tastes for entertainment will develop.



When I ask my executive clients, “If I cleared your calendar for an entire day to free you up to be ‘more strategic,’ what would you actually do?” most have no idea. How can we implement strategic thinking if we’re not even sure what it looks like? 

Here are three practical ways I’ve helped executives shift their roles to assume the appropriate strategic focus required by their jobs.
  1. Identify the strategic requirements of your job. For many executives, the connection between their role and the strategic contribution they should make is not so obvious. Executives with less clarity must work harder to etch out the line of sight between their role and its impact on the organization’s direction.
  2. Uncover patterns to focus resource investments. Once a clear line of sight is drawn to a leader’s strategic contribution, resources must be aligned to focus on that contribution. Focus helps leaders allocate money and people with confidence. They know they are working on the right things without reacting to impulsive ideas or distracting minutia.
  3. Invite dissent to build others’ commitment. Strategic insight is as much a social capability as it is an intellectual one. For people to commit to carrying out an executive’s strategic thinking, they have to both understand and believe in it.

Sound strategic thinking doesn’t have to remain an abstract mystery only a few are able to realize. Despite the common complaint, it’s not the result of making time for it. Executives must extract themselves from day-to-day problems and do the work that aligns their job with the company’s strategy.



We've all heard the calls for innovation ringing through the education field. This age of exponential change leaves us no choice -- we must change or our students will fall behind. But for many educators, shifting away from the status quo can be incredibly uncomfortable. So how do we encourage every educator to seek out that discomfort rather than avoid it?

According to Simon Sinek's discussion of the Law of Diffusion of Innovation, only about 16 percent of any group actively pursue change. Why? In my experience, these individuals thrive on it. They naturally follow a continuous cycle:
  • Risk: They enjoy experimentation. They look for opportunities to try new technology with their students, redesign assessments, suggest curriculum shifts, or pilot new programs.
  • Learn: Each risk may result in success or failure. They embrace both. They gather data, self-assess, reflect, and collaborate so that they can learn as much as possible.
  • Grow: They have the growth mindset described by Carol Dweck. They believe that they can and should continuously improve themselves and their practice.
  • Innovate: They embrace what George Couros calls the innovator's mindset. They seek new and different ways to solve any challenges they might encounter, which usually means identifying a new risk to start the process all over again. 

This is hard work, and these individuals should absolutely be recognized for their efforts. Yet if we celebrate only 16 percent of our people, any efforts toward systematic innovation are ultimately doomed to fail. So how do we encourage the rest of our colleagues toward this cycle of innovation? That requires three key strategies.
  1. Empathize: Most of the time, educators who adamantly refuse to take a risk in their practice feel afraid, insecure, undervalued, or overwhelmed, but they rarely say those things out loud. We have to empathize with them to translate what they say into what they actually mean.
  2. Model: Educators look to respected leaders or colleagues for direction. Those individuals must be willing to visibly engage in the innovation cycle or no one else will.
  3. Celebrate: Educators want to know that their hard work is valued. A small risk for an early adopter seems like an enormous risk to others. But they deserve our heartfelt respect and applause for taking any step that improves their practice.

This is not a quick fix. It requires an investment of time, energy, and patience that may not be realized for years. But by creating a culture in which our teachers celebrate discomfort, we also enable them to encourage their students in the same way. 



According to a recent survey by Hinge Research Institute and Social Media Today, organizations with employee advocacy programs have seen increased brand visibility, improved brand recognition and better brand loyalty. To boost social brand reach, many organizations start leveraging one of the most valuable marketing assets – Its EMPLOYEES. 

Employee advocacy enables companies and brands to amplify the marketing messages by encouraging its employees to share approved branded content on their personal social media channels.

Here are the four compelling reasons why Employee Advocacy is the next big thing in Marketing:
  1. People trust friends, family and peers more than any other information source
  2. Digital-Savvy Employees are your biggest marketing assets and trusted brand advocates
  3. Employees have a wider social reach than brand channels. The industry experts estimate the following statistics: • Average Facebook user has 338 friends • Average Twitter user has 208 followers • Average LinkedIn user has 393 connections That’s the power of your employees’ organic reach for your business
  4. Employees become your thought leaders. By empowering your employees with valuable content to share across their personal social media channels, create an online identity for your engaged employees in a broader communities. This in turn will position them as an ‘Industry Thought Leader’ and also continuously encourage them to build their personal brand online.

Employee advocacy has become a new marketing channel to build your brand in social media. It’s also a great way to engage your employees productively.